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Access a snapshot of the credit risk situation and business performance of 14 major industries in your country. The forecast is based on the assessment of Atradius underwriters.
Thanks to the strong recovery seen since H2 of 2014 many of Italy’s car suppliers have registered increasing profit margins and an improvement of their financial strength.
In Slovakia, payment behaviour is generally good with a low number of non-payment notificiations, and this is expected to remain unchanged in the coming months.
Economic growth in the resource-rich Brazil continues to remain under pressure due to a combination of a credit crunch, rising interest rates and weakening demand.
Inflation is expected to remain high in 2015, at around 7%, while the current account deficit is expected to remain at the same level as in 2014 (5.7% of GDP).
Growth is expected to accelerate further in 2015 and 2016, by 2.8% and 3.5% respectively, driven by continued robust domestic demand and increasing exports to the Eurozone.
The Polish economy is expected to benefit from low energy prices and the rebound in the Eurozone, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2015, based on robust domestic demand and increasing exports.
The impact of the Chinese stock market crunch of this summer and the renminbi devaluation should not be overestimated. The main long-term risk is an accelerating economic slowdown.
Land acquisition issues in setting up greenfield projects, delays in environmental clearances, logistics support and external financing remain major issues
Structural overcapacity in the industry had a negative effect on businesses´ profit margins in 2014, and this negative trend is expected to continue in 2015.
In 2015, Australian business insolvencies are expected to increase slightly by 2% as economic growth slows down and the mining industry faces mounting troubles.
The sector benefits from higher machinery investments as the Japanese economic recovery is on track (GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 after a modest contraction in 2014).
The outlook for the machinery industry is promising, as the Italian economy is expected to grow 0.6% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016 after two years of contraction.
The machinery sector should benefit from the economic rebound in France, with GDP forecast to grow 1.1% in 2015 (after 0.2% in 2014) and stronger growth in industrial production and exports.
China’s machinery sector has seen high overcapacity: profits of machinery businesses will be squeezed further by fierce competition, as companies have to offer lower prices to keep market shares.
An expected rebound in agriculture will lead to higher GDP growth in 2015, forecast to increase 4.6%. Growth is also sustained by increasing exports, mainly to the eurozone.
Concerns in 2014 over an impending crisis in Russia were overblown. But insolvencies have increased and specific industries are affected badly by the ongoing recession.
Despite its growing economy, Japan faces major demographic challenges. There is an urgent need to make the labour market more flexible to achieve a sustainable rebound and boost economic performance.