Publications et études

The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.

The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.

As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.

The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.

Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.

La performance commerciale et la situation en matière de risque de crédit de plusieurs secteurs demeurent tendues, en particulier à Dubaï.

Outre la détérioration du comportement de paiement dans le secteur privé, le nombre de retards de paiement dans les projets qui dépendent directement ou indirectement du financement public reste élevé

En 2019 et 2020, la croissance annuelle du PIB devrait dépasser 5%, soutenue par la libéralisation du taux de change, la normalisation des taux d’intérêt et l’augmentation des arrivées de touristes.

L’économie devrait croître d’environ 3,5% en 2020, mais cela repose sur des résultats convenables pour les secteurs de l’agriculture, du tourisme et des exportations.

La lenteur des réformes et les tensions sociales continuent de peser sur la perspective à moyen-terme, tandis que l’expansion économique reste dépendante de la situation en matière de sécurité.

Malgré le rebond des prix du pétrole, la croissance du PIB ne devrait se redresser que modestement en 2019 et 2020 car l’incertitude politique actuelle pèse sur les performances économiques.

Economic growth in Eastern Europe is projected to remain solid this year, despite losing steam mainly because of poor growth prospects for Turkey.

Economic growth in Romania is expected to slow down to around 3-3.1% this year, and to sink below 3% in 2020

Real GDP growth in Slovakia is forecast to remain strong – 3.3% – this year and to slow slightly down to 3.2% in 2020

Economic expansion in the Czech Republic is forecast to remain positive over the coming months, with an average growth rate of about 3% this year.

Real GDP growth in Poland is forecast to reach 4.4% this year, slowing down to 3.6% in 2020.

Financial conditions in Turkey will be tighter in the coming months.

Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market

Economic growth in Hungary gained momentum recently, with real GDP gains expected to reach 4.4% this year.

Iran continues to demonstrate economic resilience but prospects for integration into the world economy remain far off.